Kotelnik vs. Khan - Preview

MATCH: Andreas Kotelnik (31-2-1, 13 KOs) vs. Amir Khan (20-1-0, 15 KOs).

DATE: Saturday, July 18 2009.

WEIGHT CLASS: Light welterweight, 140 lbs.

TITLES: Kotelnik's WBA belt.

LOCATION: M.E.N. Arena, Manchester, UK

TV INFO: Not televised in the USA, SkySports in the UK.

UNDERCARD:

Enzo Maccarinelli vs. Denis Lebedev
James DeGale vs. Ciaran Healey

Kotelnik's Advantages:

Kotelnik simply outdoes Khan in every department pertaining to experience and ring awareness. The Ukrainian-native has boxed 244 rounds in his career, compared to Khan's 82. Kotelnik holds notable wins over Marcos Maidana (an impressive feat, looking back on the Argentinian's defeat of highly-touted Victor Ortiz), talented William Gonzalez and then-undefeated Gavin Rees. He has a good set of whiskers, having never been KO'd, or even knocked down, in his career.

Whilst not heavy-handed, Kotelnik is accustomed to fighting 12 rounds, having done so nine times in his career, and has consistent force from beginning to end - increasing the probability that Khan will get caught by something at some point.

Arguably the greatest advantage that the Hamburg-based fighter will invoke on Saturday was best describbed by Junior Witter - who holds a unanimous decision win over Kotelnik - in an interview with ringtv.com last week: "Kotelnik is a very decepive fighter. He's easy to underestimate because there's nothing flashy about what he does, but ... he's solid all the way through!"

The type of grit that the Ukrainian displays is a potent weapon against any young, talented but inexperienced boxer - and, having been angered by his "underdog" status and the Brit's forward-looking nature, Kotelnik has promised to punish Khan severely come Saturday night. In truth, it wouldn't be a major upset if he did!

Kotelnik's Disadvantages:

A more cynical, glass-half-empty approach to Kotelnik's style and career is that he is neither strong, nor fast, nor particularly difficult to deal with. As orthodox a boxer as ever there was, the Ukrainian can be labeled as predictable and repetitive. He fails to pull the proverbial bunny out of the hat, which is almost always required when fighting champions.

Although well-rounded as a fighter, Kotelnik does not excel in any one area of the sport and can hence hold no significant advantage over Khan in any single area. Oh - and somebody's gotta mention it - the champ postponed the fight for three weeks due to suffering from toothache. As anyone who has ever had trouble in that area knows, a decent punch will hurt waaaaaay more if there's still any lingering effects. Let's hope - for Kotelnik's sake - that he has recovered fully.

Khan's Advantages:

Nobody can doubt that Khan is extremely talented. I think that he is considerably more advanced than either Floyd Mayweather Jr or Zab Judah were at his age - and that's saying something! The speed and accuracy of Khan's punches is awe-inspiring, and it has been on display every single time he has stepped in the ring - making it a virtual certainty that we will see it again on Saturday!

Also a powerful puncher, the Brit can inflict heavy damage on his opponents and make them even more vulnerable to his quick hands. Khan will have an advantage in both height and reach - three inches - and be the more nimble on his feet. Additionally, Khan's straight-up style is excellent from a defensive standpoint - I see Kotelnik having a hard time catching Khan with anything.

Besides the boxing factors, the Olympic silver-medalist will also have a vocal crowd cheering him forth and the best trainer that money can buy - Freddie Roach, who transformed Khan from a gifted-but-vulnerable contender into a solid fighter who is now widely tipped to win his first world title at the M.E.N. tomorrow night.

Khan's Disadvantages:

Breidis Prescott, anyone? The Columbian contender knocked Khan out in 54-seconds a mere ten months ago. True, Prescott could wobble a horse just by feigning a right, but accusations of a glass jaw have been haunting the Brit for a while. And they won't go away either - despite the fact that he took a couple of healthy shots from a bloodied Marco Antonio Barrera in his last outing; despite the fact that he reinvented his defense; despite the fact that he now tucks his chin in. Truth is, if Khan is nailed properly during the twelve-rounder we are likely to experience, he will lose.

Being inexperienced (remember those 82 pro rounds?) means that the Bolton-native will have a hard time adjusting, should he run into any difficulty. Roach will help, no doubt, but a question mark remains over Khan's versatility and courage in the face of adversity.

Outcome Prediction:

Call me crazy, or intuitive, or prophetic (not to be confused with pathetic). I think this one will go the distance, and I think it may be fairly close. Khan's speed and power will diminish slightly as the fight goes on, whilst Kotelnik will be fairly consistent, as has always been the case. The styles indicate that it will be a reasonably cautious fight, but I'm predicting that, between his God-given talent and top-notch corner, Khan will squeeze out a close decision, somewhere around 115-113.

Undercard Analysis:

As is almost always the case with Brits, they put on interesting undercards - often featuring popular up-and-comers, or already-accomplished fighters. This one, fortunately, includes both: the former in the form of James DeGale, Olympic gold-medalist, who is fighting professionally for only the third time, and the latter being Enzo Maccarinelli, former cruiserweight world champion, who is looking to rebound from a shock loss to Ola Afolabi earlier this year.

Enzo Maccarinelli (29-3-0, 22 KOs) vs. Denis Lebedev (17-0-0, 12 KOs)

Macca has shifted a lot of personal factors around since losing to Afolabi - he parted ways with Enzo Calzaghe and instead hired Karl Ince as his trainer, switching up a few things in his training camps in order to be better prepared to last the distance (he was ahead against Afolabi but ran out of steam). He is a former world champ, and is more experienced than his Russian counterpart.

Lebedev is not well-known, but apparently packs a huge punch. He has defeated a string of low-level competitors with ease, and is deemed ready to move up the ranks.

It is noteworthy that a defeat would set both men back a considerable distance - Maccarinelli may never recover from a third loss in four bouts, whilst Lebedev may be demoted from the "contender" ranks indefinitely, should he fail to dispatch the Welshman. Therefore, we should have an interesting scrap on our hands. My prediction is that Maccarinelli will emerge victorious in an easy unanimous decision.

James DeGale (2-0-0, 1 KO) vs. Ciaran Healey (10-10-1, 2 KOs):

Okay people - let's face it. DeGale isn't in for a tough test. It's odds-on that Healey couldn't knock me out, much less the middleweight Olympic-gold-medalist! DeGale faces a man with an even record in his second outing and is hoping to further polish his skills in front of a live audience. Despite my quip, Healey is actually a worthy gatekeeper, having fought many undefeated prospects in his time. He just won't have the answer to DeGale's mix of speed, power, and ring-smarts. DeGale by KO in round 2.

Yep - this marks the end of my second ever fight preview. I will, of course, be back with a post-fight analysis. In the meantime, I suggest you begin to follow the blog, or check me out on Twitter!
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