Agbeko vs. Darchinyan - Analysis

MATCH: Joseph Agbeko (26-1, 22 KOs) vs. Vic Darchinyan (32-1-1, 26 KOs)


DATE: Saturday, July 11 2009.


WEIGHT CLASS: Bantamweight, 118 lbs.


TITLES: Agbeko's IBF Belt.


LOCATION: BankAtlantlic Center, Sunrise, FL.


TV INFO: Showtime, 9PM ET/PT

UNDERCARD:

Tony DeMarco vs. Anges Adjaho (WBA eliminator, also televised)
Steve Cunningham vs. Wayne Braithwaite (IBF eliminator, not televised)


Agbeko's Advantages:


"King Kong" Agbeko, although relatively unheard of, especially in the USA, is one in a long line of Ghanaian world champions and contenders: Joshua Clottey and Ike Quartey come to mind (the former having given Miguel Cotto fits for 12 rounds a month ago, and the latter having been robbed of victories against both De la Hoya and Vernon Forrest in the eyes of some). But being Ghanaian in boxing is generally equated to having the heart of a lion, and Agbeko has demonstrated this throughout a solid career.


He is also the naturally bigger man in this matchup (and no, I'm not referring to Vic's insults here) as a natural bantamweight, with an impressive KO record that denotes very good power. Agbeko also knows how to protect his chin (he's never even been knocked down), using head movement and good upper body work - this may come in especially handy against a powerful guy like Vic.


That Agbeko is a highly determined boxer, who has been given an opportunity to fight a smaller man for more fame and recognition than he could have hoped for a year ago is not to be ignored. You can bet your last dime that when the Ghanaian warrior steps into the ring tomorrow night, he'll be determined to fight through hell to defend his belt and good reputation.


Darchinyan's Advantages:


Vicious Vic (aptly nicknamed "Raging Bull") has made a habit of knocking out sturdy boxers: Cristian Mijares and Jorge Arce come to mind! Mijares was WBC and WBA World Champ in the junior bantamweight division, and Arce had only been stopped once before in a distinguished 56 fight career. This means one thing: an unnatural power. Indeed, Darchinyan is widely recognized as one of the top pound-for-pound punchers in the game, and his career record proves it. Furthermore, the fact that the Armenian-born fighter started out as a flyweight and carried his power over to the super flyweight ranks inspires a certain confidence in the man's ability to inflict damage.

Darchinyan possesses superb reflexes and athleticism, and has an almost-comically unorthodox stance, from which he throws punches at angles so odd that I'm surprised he's never KFTO'd a ref. He is an underrated boxer and exhibits good footwork when remembers to use it!

Lastly, he is running very high in the confidence department, having unified the super flyweight titles over the last year or so.

Agbeko's Disadvantages:

In one word - inexperience. Although a seasoned fighter in his own right, Agbeko has never dealt with an opponent of Darchinyan's pedigree. It is noteworthy that, since his controversial loss against Wlad Sidorenko, Agbeko has fought five times in five years, taking all of 2005 and 2006 off, and only climbing into the ring once in 2008. Since then, his opponents have had a combined record of 59-10, whereas Darchinyan has faced three former or current world champions, whose records (combined 116-10) do not do justice to their outstanding skill.

Agbeko is also being coached by the man who trained him as an amateur, Adama Ardey, who has been a good personal factor for the Ghanaian, but has not shown an extensive technical acumen that is generally required of those who prepare fighters for championship fights. Whether or not Ardey will be able to help his fighter adjust to Darchinyan's difficult style is pivotal to the outcome of the fight. Agbeko's tactical stagnation in his last few outings seems to indicate that it may be too great an ask to outsmart the wily Armenian.

Darchinyan's Disadvantages:

In two words - Nonito Donaire. The Filipino Flash caught Vic right on the chin in the fifth round of Vic's defense of his IBF flyweight title. Raging Bull could not beat the count, and looked a mess afterwards (bloody nose and all). Although Darchinyan showed drastic improvement in his subsequent bouts, the KO of the Year in 2007 proved that he was vulnerable to be hit with a hook when coming in to punch. Furthermore, Vic has yet to show us any semblance of defensive skill, which may be problematic against the biggest man he's ever faced. Thus, the risk of getting caught is fairly high - too high for a fighter of his caliber!

Besides the Donaire incident, Vic was never subtle - inside or outside the ring. Hence, his tendency to stand and trade bombs might just get him in trouble against a warrior like Agbeko.

Outcome Prediction:

Most pundits fancy Darchinyan in those one, and I would have to agree with them. Brave though he is, I cannot see Agbeko standing up to Darchinyan's freakish power and awkward style for 12 rounds. In the end, Raging Bull's superior natural talent and ring smarts will overcome King Kong's size advantage and chin. I predict a seventh round KO for Vic Darchinyan.

Undercard Analysis, Part I:

Fom what I gather, Showtime will televize the bout between Tony DeMarco and Anges Adjaho, so maybe I should start with that one. A small spiel on each fighter in this WBA lightweight eliminator:

Tony DeMarco (21-1, 15 KOs):

The talented Mexican fighter has put together a good string of ten successive wins, which have propelled him up the rankings and given him the bout against Adjaho, whose winner becomes WBA champion Edwin Valero's mandatory challenger.

DeMarco has good power in both hands and a solid grasp of fundamentals, but is an otherwise incomplete pugilist who may develop into a true contender in the next two or three years (he is, after all, only 23).

Anges Adjaho (24-1, 14 KOs):

A fairly obscure figure, who fought most of his career out of Africa, where he held a number of titles, has so far failed in his only World Championship eliminator match, against Miguel Acosta. His only notable victory is a decision over Fernando Angulo, and let's face it - he's not exactly a future Hall-of-Famer, is he?

Outcome Prediction:

DeMarco is a good prospect, who may be ready to step it up in the spotlight. Adjaho will not have the boxing skills and the ring experience to keep up with the Mexican youngster, and will gradually slow after the opening rounds. I predict a fourth round KO for Tony DeMarco. Just as a cynical sidenote - the reward for winning this match is a shot at Edwin Valero, who is known for destroying a billion brain cells inside of three minutes in the ring. Not exactly appealing, is it?

Undercard Analysis, Part II:

The untelevised bout between Steve Cunningham and Wayne Braithwaite is also relevant, as it serves as an eliminator for Adamek's IBF title. Hence, I get to throw my two cents on it:

Steve "USS" Cunningham (23-2, 11 KOs):

Cunningham stepped on to the world scene when he won the IBF Cruiserweight title in a rematch against Krzysztof Wlodarczyk in mid 2007. Since then, he has defended it against solid-contender Marco Huck and lost it in a split decision to Tomasz Adamek.

Cunningham is a very good, complete boxer, who has a reasonably high chance at winning at least one more world title in his career. At 32, he has a few good fights in him, and has been an established contender in the division for about five years, which shows his durability and skill.

Wayne "Big Truck" Braithwaite (23-3, 19 KOs):

Big Truck is notable for having held the WBC cruiserweight title for almost three years, and losing a one-sided decision to Enzo Maccarinelli for the WBO belt. Braithwaite has very good power, as is shown by a high KO ratio, but his work rate tends to drop in the latter stages of fights, which is a liability when facing a workhorse such as Cunningham. At almost 34 years old, Braithwaite's career may be drawing to a close - however, rest assured he'll be looking to prove his power by beating "USS" tomorrow night and squaring off for another world title.

Outcome Prediction:

Braithwaite is a seasoned pro, but the power of Big Truck will be offset by the complete skill set of Cunningham. Hence, USS will outwork and outclass his opponent in every department, before knocking him out in the middle rounds. My prediction is an fifth round KO for Steve Cunningham, who will then go on to get a well-deserved rematch with Adamek for the IBF belt.

So that's the end of my first major blog on a fight. I hope you enjoyed it, and that we'll see a couple of great matches tomorrow from Sunrise, Fla.