Pacquiao Agrees to Cotto Fight - Bob Arum Wins in Advance!

Bob Arum of Top Rank Promotions has pulled off the coup of the decade after wrapping up the paperwork for a fight between two of his most prized boxers – pound for pound sensation Manny Pacquiao and highly-rated welterweight titlist Miguel Cotto.

The stablemates (who are both promoted by Arum) have agreed to face each other on November 14 at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas at a catchweight of 145 pounds. In so doing, Top Rank has put together a fight whose gate receipts will border the ten million dollar mark, and which will hope to sell well north of half a million pay-per-views. Since the bout is only for one title and involves only one promotions company, Arum has just scored a major victory in securing what is almost certain to be the biggest PPV event of the fall.

The reason I will focus on economics in this particular piece (rest assured there will be numerous follow-ups of the boxing variety) is the scenario I will put forth for your reading pleasure:

Let’s say that gate receipts total 9 million dollars (as most sell-out fights at the MGM Grand do). And that, as per Bob Arum’s estimate, PPV numbers match the Hatton-Pacman fight at circa 900’000. The calculation is thus:

(54.99 * 900’000) + 9’000’000 = $ 58’491’000

For those of us who aren’t all that great with numbers, that borders sixty million dollars, of which Arum, being the sole promoter here, keeps somewhere between a quarter to a third. Let’s call it a decent 30%. That means roughly seventeen million, all for Top Rank Promotions!

Arum has yet to announce the exact purse split, but I’m willing to bet that it’s in the ballpark of 60:40 in favor of Pacman. That means that Pacquiao, whose career earnings are close to $50 million, will make close to 25 million, regardless of the result.

Notably, the fight will be for the WBO welterweight title, which means that 3% of the purse goes to the World Boxing Organization as a sanctioning fee. This, however, still leaves Cotto with about 15 million dollars – by far the biggest payday of his career!

A number of boxing enthusiasts and journalists will blast Pacman for turning his back on “Sugar” Shane Mosley and his offer to split the purse 60:40 and fight at 140 lbs. Not I – if only for the reason that both Pacman and Arum would have been worse off, from an economic standpoint, as well as a boxing one.

First and foremost, Mosley is not as great a draw as Cotto. The latter has a huge following in New York and is idolized by Puerto Ricans all over the world. “Sugar” is popular in L.A. but was never a major PPV attraction. Pacquiao – Mosley would not have sold more than three quarters of a million pay-per-views, and as such would only have yielded about fifty million dollars, of which Bob Arum would have kept 30% of 60% (the rest would have gone to Mosley and Golden Boy Promotions, who handles the fighter’s business). By the same calculation as above, Arum would have made ten million dollars – forty percent less than by throwing Cotto into the mix.

Additionally, Pacman’s belt would have been at risk, as would his pound-for-pound status against a highly dangerous and seemingly-ageless Mosley (who, admittedly, lost to Cotto but beat Margarito after the Tijuana Tornado had pummeled the Puerto-Rican star into submission).

Of all permutations, Arum could not have come out looking any better. Whether the same can be said for both of his fighters, we will not know until after November 14.

"Sugar" Shane Mosley and his Great Dilemma

The Staples Center was fuller than it had ever been. Hordes of boxing fans had descended upon the arena to see one of the most intriguing welterweight matchups of the decade. But "Sugar" Shane Mosley could not be bothered with that just now - he had a very important item of business to take care of, and could afford no distractions.

The bell sounds, indicating the start of the ninth round, with Mosley and Margarito tapping gloves as they come out of their respective corners. Sugar Shane stalks the Tijuana Tornado, landing combinations to the Mexican's granite chin with an otherworldly speed. Mosley has his opponent on the ropes continually and proceeds to up the ante forty seconds in. Margarito crumples under the barrage and referee Raul Caiz steps in to wave the fight off.

Calm as you like, Mosley turns his back to his bruised-and-battered opponent, raises his arms above his head, and proceeds to bow to each section of the crowd, as though nothing of note had just occurred.

But something big happened that night. Something so big, that Mosley has had to wait six full months in order to even contemplate his next move. What happened was that the 37-year-old version of Sugar outsmarted, outfought and outlasted a prime Antonio Margarito, who had been tagged as the best welterweight in the world.

In the course of one night, Mosley went from generally being regarded as "washed-up" to being WBA world champ in his division, and the RING's number one rated contender. Members of the press who had been howling about a mismatch, fearing for Mosley's safety in the face of "hell-in-short-pants" Margarito were left staring, mouth-agape, at a bizarre twist of the laws of time.

In this fairy-tale ending, however, the hero is not permitted to ride off into the sunset with the woman of his dreams (ironically, Mosley's wife filed for divorce a week before the Margarito match). This is the world of boxing, and our heroes must be back to entertain us until they slur their words or until the public has some new icon to look up to. Mosley, being a fighter at heart who has never attempted to avoid any boxer at all, was eager for a shot at pound-for-pound champ Manny Pacquiao, or the awkward-and-highly-regarded Paul Williams, or a unification against Andre Berto, or a rematch with the outstanding Miguel Cotto.

The problem is this - Mosley represents a tremendous risk in exchange for minimal reward. If he were beaten by any of the above, the public is liable to claim that Mosley is too old to be relevant. Pacquiao, Williams, Berto and Cotto know that Sugar Shane still presents a formidable challenge, even at an advanced age. As such, they would much rather take easier routes. The deal is this:

As of right now, Cotto is otherwise preoccupied. He has already beaten Mosley, in 2007, in a close decision. Junito has been in wars with the Mosley-dethroned Margarito (which he lost via TKO) and with Joshual Clottey (in which he won a narrow decision) and is currently negotiating with Pacquiao. After all the punishment Miguel Cotto has taken in two of his last three fights, the last thing he wants to do is rematch with a fierce Mosley, who would no doubt give him fits. He would much rather take the pound-for-pound fight against Pacman, which represents less of a risk, profesionally speaking, and more money.

Similarly, Pacquiao is looking to take the easy road in order to retain his mythical crown for just a bit longer. After sending Oscar de la Hoya and (hopefully) Ricky Hatton into retirement in his last two outings, the Filipino master will be looking to take on more big names from the 135-147 lbs bracket. However, he will only do so on his own terms, with regard to both the financial aspect and the catch-weight. Pacquiao vs. Mosley could have taken place somewhere above 140 and below 147, but Roach was reticent to get the fight made; truth be told, Mosley hasn't been under 147 lbs since 1999. I think that asking him to make 143 is an insult, especially when you consider the fact that Manny had no problem fighting Golden Boy at 147. When asked about this discrepancy, Roach replied:

"Yeah - but Mosley isn't Oscar."

Which is his way of saying: "I know Manny'll get beat at 147. We gotta drain Mosley a lil bit."

With that, Mosley danced around Pacman for a little, trying to persuade him to take the fight, and even agreeing to the catch-weight and whatever split of the purse the Filipino may have wanted. Truth is this: Manny will only fight Mosley if it's the last possible option. Hence the ongoing negotiations with Cotto, which, last I heard, weren't going too well, on account of Cotto grumbling about making anything below 145 lbs. As a countermeasure, Pacquiao has been whispering about Mosley agreeing to 143. That's option one.

Between options one and two, it is only correct that we talk about Paul Williams, who has had a Mosley-like difficulty in finding willing opponents (the infinitely admirable Winky Wright being the sole exception). Sugar has explicitly stated that he would not like to fight The Punisher, but I'm fairly sure that, in the right conditions, he would. To cement this view, the news broke a couple of days ago that Mosley was done chasing Pac, and wanted Berto, Williams, Cintron or Clottey. Any of these fights would be intriguing, but none more so than the Williams bout. The Punisher, who has an 82-inch reach (Mike Tyson had 71 by comparison), is highly skillful and would cause big, big problems even for the prodigiously-gifted Mosley.

Much like the Pac-Sugar connection, Sugar-Punisher will only be on in the most extenuating circumstances. Now, back to business:

Option two for Mosley is Andre Berto, with whom Golden Boy Promotions has begun to negotiate. First of all, this would present a unification of the WBA and WBC belts, which is always significant. Secondly, it would show the world what Berto, who is an undefeated former Olympian and amateur standout, is made of. Problem with Berto-Mosley is this: it wouldn't sell well. I mean, Mosley has a decent following in LA, but Berto's fought two of his last four bouts in Biloxi and Tennessee - indicative of a chronic disinterest on behalf of the public.

Oh, and of course, Berto might wind up being completely overmatched here. I mean, he barely got by Luis Collazo, in a fight which I scored a draw. Mosley damn near shut the man out a couple of years ago. It is also possible that Berto will break out of his shell and stun the world, commencing a reign of terror atop the talented welterweight ranks. But it's less likely than a Mosley win over Margarito looked about ten months ago. I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

In any case, I sincerely hope that Pacquiao makes up his mind about who he wants to fight - and soon. Him and Cotto can go at it this November, around the time when Mosley and Berto would be facing off. The winners can be paired up, or enter the post-Marquez Mayweather sweepstakes. The possibilities are near-endless. And most of them are mouthwatering.